The initial attacks against Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense included a virtual mantra that the former Nebraska senator was “out of the mainstream” of thinking on the Middle East. Even in his endorsement of Hagel yesterday, Tom Friedman noted that “some of his views are not ‘mainstream.’” But that’s [...]]]> via Lobe Log

The initial attacks against Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense included a virtual mantra that the former Nebraska senator was “out of the mainstream” of thinking on the Middle East. Even in his endorsement of Hagel yesterday, Tom Friedman noted that “some of his views are not ‘mainstream.’” But that’s nonsense, particularly when it comes to the Middle East. The fact is this: Hagel’s views on the Middle East — favoring a “lighter footprint” in the region; taking a more even-handed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; strong skepticism about any U.S. military intervention in Syria, and military intervention in general; opposition to an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear program — very much reflect those of a significant majority of the U.S. public. We know that because poll after poll of U.S. public opinion during the last year and more shows it.

Now, as Elliott Abrams predictably points out on his blog about the results of a new Pew poll, it’s absolutely true that a significant plurality of Americans sympathize more with Israel than with the Palestinians. That is not in question and has been true for a very long time. But note in his post how he complains about public attitudes toward intervention in Syria, elements of which he and other neo-cons have been pushing for a long time. (Of course, Elliott blames Obama for the lack of public enthusiasm for intervention, just as he blames close to everything which, in his view, goes bad in the region, on Obama’s passivity or some other flaw, never recalling that his work as George W. Bush’s chief Mideast aide helped lay the groundwork for what Obama has had to deal with.) According to the poll, nearly two-thirds of respondents said they feel the U.S. has no responsibility for involving itself in Syria and 65% oppose even the arming of anti-Assad rebels. So it’s the neo-con view that Washington should get more involved in support of the rebels which, in this case, is definitely “outside the mainstream.” Similarly, take a PIPA poll from early October this year. Asked whether the U.S. should become more or less involved in the Middle East, 23% opted for the former. But a whopping 63% said the U.S. should become “less involved.” Again, the neo-con view doesn’t represent the “mainstream.” Hagel — and Obama, for that matter, seem much closer.

But back to the U.S. public’s views about Israel (and I apologize for not doing a more thorough analysis, but the circumstances in which I find myself over this vacation are such that I can’t do the kind of research and linking I’d like to). What worries the neo-cons and the Israel lobby about Hagel is that while he supports Israel, he doesn’t see it as having the same or, in some cases, similar interests and values as the United States. At times, he even sees big differences in interests between the two countries, especially in the Middle East. Neo-cons and the Israel lobby, on the other hand, are devoted to the proposition that their interests and values are one and the same. To some extent, the success of those efforts are reflected in the greater sympathy that a large plurality of Americans feel for Israel, as opposed to the Palestinians. (There are other reasons why this is so, too.)

But let’s consider just a few polling results over the past year that might shed some light on how the general public perceives the convergence of U.S. and Israeli interests. Back in February, Gallup did their annual survey of the favorability ratings of individual countries around the world. If the Israel lobby had its way, Israel would rank at the top, but that’s not the case at all. In fact, while Israel ranks relatively high, it’s quite amazing to consider which countries are higher yet. Of course, the leading Anglosphere countries top the list, with Canada at 96%, Australia at 93%, and Great Britain at 90%. One would expect Israel to come in at right around Britain’s level, but that’s not the case. Germany ranked #4 at 86%, followed by Japan at 83%; and — get this! — perfidious France, which only ten years ago almost lost its claim to fried potatoes sold in the Congressional cafeterias because of its opposition to the neocon-inspired invasion of Iraq, scored 75%. And, tied with France, was…India(!!!!), which has no serious military relationship, let alone an alliance, with the U.S. and won’t even buy our nuclear plants or fighter jets. Only then, after France and India, comes Israel, at 71%! While the view of Israel is still clearly positive, it hardly suggests that the general public, unlike the Congress and its many standing ovations for Bibi Netanyahu, accepts the Jewish state as its most loyal and steadfast ally.

Also take a look at the latest in a series of quadrennial polls conducted earlier this year and released in September by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. While the general public hopes to reduce direct U.S. involvement in the Middle East, a 50% plurality said one of the very few situations in which they would support the deployment of U.S. troops there would be as part of a peacekeeping force to help ensure an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Asked how they would feel if Israel was attacked by its neighbors, a 50% plurality would oppose the U.S. taking any military action; 47% percent said they would favor it.

Asked about U.S. economic aid to Israel, a mere 11% said it should be increased and another 45% said it should remain the same. But 23% said it should be reduced, while 18% said it should be halted altogether. Similar figures applied to military aid (which Congress and the administration continue to increase, what with Iron Dome, etc.)

Most important — and this goes to the latest Pew stats cited by Abrams — the Council asked about what side, if any, the U.S. should take in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. While 30% said Washington should take Israel’s side — despite their lip-service to a two-state solution, the vast majority of members of Congress clearly fall into that category with its various AIPAC-drafted resolutions, statements, and letters — and only three percent said it should side with the Palestinians, while a strong 65% majority said it should take neither side. This is consistent with virtually all polling done on this question, which, it bears repeating, is far more relevant than the question of which side you sympathize with most. The fact is, around two-thirds of the U.S. public believes Washington should act as an honest broker between the two sides, which, as I understand it, is what Hagel has long argued. Again, on this, it’s the neo-cons and the Israel lobby that lies outside the mainstream.

Finally, the Chicago Council asked respondents to say what they would prefer the U.S. do if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran retaliated against Israel. The question was, should the U.S. “bring its military on the side of Israel against Iran?” Thirty-eight percent of respondents said yes, but a 56% majority said no. (Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Dempsey, of course, also suggested his answer would be no.) Of course, this is not the reigning view in Congress, at least at the moment.

As I noted, this is a pretty cursory glance at some polls about how the general public sees the identity or difference in interests between the U.S. and Israel. But I’m confident that if you troll among many polls, these results would be pretty representative. Like Hagel, the general public has expressed support in various surveys for a two-state solution along the Clinton parameters, but I don’t think most neocons support that, and the Israel lobby takes its cues from Bibi whose sincerity on the issue is subject to considerable doubt, particularly in light of the most recent settlement announcements and activity. Again, it’s the neocons who appear outside the mainstream, certainly not Hagel. The disconnect here is found in Congress where the lobby exercises the most influence. Indeed, the measure of the influence — and/or intimidation — exerted by the lobby can be seen precisely in that disconnect between Congress (and the Beltway Bubble) and the general public.

Photo: Junko Kimura/Getty Images

Disillusioned by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. public is becoming increasingly comfortable with a more modest and less militarised global role for the nation, according to the latest in a biennial series of major surveys.

That attitude is particularly pronounced in the so-called Millennial Generation, citizens between the [...]]]> via IPS News

Disillusioned by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. public is becoming increasingly comfortable with a more modest and less militarised global role for the nation, according to the latest in a biennial series of major surveys.

That attitude is particularly pronounced in the so-called Millennial Generation, citizens between the ages of 18 and 29, according to the poll. They are generally much less worried about international terrorism, immigration, and the rise of China and are far less supportive of an activist U.S. approach to foreign affairs than older groups, it found.

Political independents, who will likely play a decisive role in the outcome of November’s presidential election, also tend more than either Republicans or Democrats to oppose interventionist policies in world affairs, according to the survey, which was released at the Wilson Center for International Scholars here Monday by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA).

The survey results suggest that more aggressive and militaristic policies adopted by Republicans at their convention last month may be out of step with both independents and younger voters.

“If you read the whole report,” noted Daniel Drezner, an international relations professor who blogs at foreignpolicy.com, “what’s striking is how much the majority view on foreign policy jibes with what the Obama administration has been doing in the world: military retrenchment from the Middle East, a reliance on diplomacy and sanctions to deal with rogue states, a refocusing on East Asia, and prudent cuts in defence spending.”

For the first time since the Council posed the question in 1994, a majority of its nearly 1,900 adult respondents said they believe that Asia is more important to the United States than Europe.

Reflecting perhaps the so-called “pivot” by the administration of President Barack Obama from the Middle East to Asia, 52 percent of respondents said Asia was more important, a 10-percent increase over the Council’s 2010 survey result. The Pew Research Center found a similar change in its own survey earlier this year.

The survey, which was conducted in late May and early June, also found strong resistance by the public to becoming more deeply involved – especially militarily – in the Middle East, despite the perception by seven in 10 respondents that the region is more threatening to U.S. security than any other.

For the first time since 9/11, majorities said they opposed the retention or establishment of long-term U.S. military bases in Iraq or Afghanistan.

At the same time, 70 percent of respondents said they opposed a unilateral U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities; and almost as many (59 percent) said the U.S. should not ally itself militarily with Israel if the Jewish state attacks Iran.

The survey, which was released on the eve of the 11th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on New York City and Pentagon, suggested that the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with the continuing hardships of the 2008 global financial crisis, have soured much of the public on foreign intervention, especially military intervention.

“Ten years after 9/11, we see that Americans are in the process of recalibrating their views on international engagement and searching for less costly ways to project positive U.S. influence and protect American interests around the world,” said Marshall Bouton, CCFR’s long-time president.

“Now, with a strong sense that the wars have over-stretched our military and strained our economic resources, they prefer to avoid the use of military force if at all possible,” he noted.

Indeed, the survey found that a record 67 percent of the public now believes the war in Iraq was “not worth it”, while seven of 10 respondents agreed that “the experience of the Iraq war should make nations more cautious about using military force.”

Sixty-nine percent said the war in Afghanistan either made “no difference” to U.S. security (51 percent) or that it made the country “less safe” (18 percent).

The degree of disillusion with foreign affairs in light of the past decade was perhaps most starkly illustrated by the answers to the binary question of whether respondents thought it best for the U.S. to “take an active part in world affairs” or “stay out of world affairs”.

Led by the Millenials (52 percent), 38 percent of all respondents opted for the latter – the highest percentage since just after World War II and seven points higher than in 2010, according to the Council’s analysis. A majority of 61 percent said Washington should take an “active part” – the smallest majority since 1998.

Nearly eight in 10 respondents (78 percent) said they believe the U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should – a figure that has been constant since 2004, a year after the Iraq invasion.

“While they see leadership as desirable,” according to the Council analysis, “Americans clearly reject the role of the United States as a hyperpower and want to take a more cooperative stance.”

Indeed 56 percent now agree with the proposition that Washington should be “more willing to make decisions within the United Nations” even if such decisions are not its first choice. That is a marked increase from a historic low of 50 percent in 2010.

Most respondents said they were not concerned about the growing influence of emerging nations in Asia and elsewhere. Asked for their reaction to increased foreign policy independence of countries like Turkey and Brazil, nearly seven in 10 respondents (69 percent) agreed that it was “mostly good” because of their reduced reliance on the U.S. rather than that it was “mostly bad because then they are likely to do things the U.S. does not support”.

The survey found persistent support for a large military – 53 percent said they believed “maintaining superior military power” is a “very important” foreign policy goal. But that was down from 67 percent in 2002, shortly after 9/11.

Contrary to Republican demands that the defence budget should be increased, two-thirds of respondents said it should be cut, and half of those said it should be cut the same or more than other government programmes.

And while Republicans continue to attack Obama for “leading from behind” during last year’s intervention in Libya, Bouton said his survey results found that the public was quite comfortable with the low-key role.

Only seven percent said Washington should have taken the “leading role” in the military campaign; 72 percent said it should have taken “a minor role” (31 percent) or “a major but not leading role” (41 percent). Nineteen percent said the U.S. should not have participated at all.

Republican politicans have also mocked Obama for offering to negotiate directly with hostile states. But more than two-thirds of respondents said Washington should be ready to hold talks with the leaders of Cuba (73 percent), North Korea (69 percent) and Iran (67 percent).

The survey found that self-described Republicans generally see the world as more hostile and threatening than Democrats.

The most striking differences between members of the two parties were found over immigration, climate change, and the Middle East, particularly on Israel-related issues, with Republicans siding much more strongly with Israel on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran.