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IPS Writers in the Blogosphere » Mullen http://www.ips.org/blog/ips Turning the World Downside Up Tue, 26 May 2020 22:12:16 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 Mullen Reiterates Importance of Engagement with Iran http://www.ips.org/blog/ips/mullen-reiterates-importance-of-engagement-with-iran/ http://www.ips.org/blog/ips/mullen-reiterates-importance-of-engagement-with-iran/#comments Wed, 21 Sep 2011 02:00:21 +0000 Jim Lobe http://www.lobelog.com/?p=9925 As noted by Ali on the ThinkProgress blog today, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, appealed yet again for Washington to engage Iran through any channel available in hopes that the two countries will avoid dangerous miscalculations in their relationship. Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [...]]]> As noted by Ali on the ThinkProgress blog today, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, appealed yet again for Washington to engage Iran through any channel available in hopes that the two countries will avoid dangerous miscalculations in their relationship. Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace one day after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon hoped to establish a “hot line” between the two navies (something that former Centcom commander Adm. William “Fox” Fallon had tried to get the Bush administration to approve with professionally fatal consequences), Mullen was asked whether he favored such a link:

MULLEN: We haven’t had a connection with Iran since 1979. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, we had links to the Soviet Union. We are not talking to Iran, so we don’t understand each other. If something happens, it’s virtually assured that we won’t get it right — that there will be miscalculation which would be extremely dangerous in that part of the world. [...]

QUESTION: Are you specifically talking about military to military contact, or a broader set of engagement between the two countries?

MULLEN: I’m talking about any channel that’s open. We’ve not had a direct link of communication with Iran since 1979. And I think that has planted many seeds for miscalculation. When you miscalculate, you can escalate and misunderstand. This isn’t about agreeing or disagreeing. [...]

My own experience is, it sort of depends on the country what the most effective channels are. Some of them are diplomatic. Some of them are political. Some of them are mil-to-mil. Some of them are economic. But we have not had a clear channel to Iran since 1979.

[...] Any channel would be terrific and I don’t have a preferred one based on what the hopes would be.

This is not the first time that Mullen has spoken in favor of this. As I noted in a July 2008 post, when Mullen had just returned from Israel to make clear to official there that the Bush administration (apparently with the exception of Dick Cheney) opposed an Israeli strike against Iran or even too much talk about it, he spoke to the issue at some length:

“No, I’ve — when I talk about dialogue — actually, I would say very broadly, across the entirety of our government and their government, but specifically that would … need to be led, obviously, politically and diplomatically. And if it then resulted in a military-to-military dialogue, I think that part of it certainly could add to a better understanding about each other. But I’m really focused on the diplomatic aspect.”

“…We haven’t had much of a dialogue with the Iranians for a long time, and I think if I were just to take the high stakes that …I just talked about a minute ago, part of the results of that engagement or lack of engagement, I think, is there. But as has been pointed out more than once, it takes two people to want to have a dialogue, not just the desire on one part.”

[Asked whether he's saying there's a need for dialogue between the United States government and the Iranian government, he says] “…I think it’s a broad dialogue. I think it would cover the full spectrum of international — and it could very well certainly cover the dialogue between us as well.”

What is remarkable is that we are now more than three years later, including more than two-and-a-half years into the administration which, despite Obama’s campaign vows, has, as Paul Pillar wrote just last week, never seriously engaged with Tehran. Instead, the talk is all about more and tougher sanctions, which, of course, takes us in the opposite direction and moves us closer to armed conflict.

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Weekly Links http://www.ips.org/blog/ips/weekly-links/ http://www.ips.org/blog/ips/weekly-links/#comments Fri, 16 Sep 2011 16:32:54 +0000 Jasmin Ramsey http://www.lobelog.com/?p=9868 Be in the know, Sept. 12-16.

Chairman Concerned Over Lack of U.S.-Iran Contact – Jim Garamone, American Forces Press Service

During a stop at the University of Miami yesterday, Navy Adm. Mike Mullen said that the lack of contact between the United States and Iran is troubling.

“Even in the [...]]]> Be in the know, Sept. 12-16.

Chairman Concerned Over Lack of U.S.-Iran Contact – Jim Garamone, American Forces Press Service

During a stop at the University of Miami yesterday, Navy Adm. Mike Mullen said that the lack of contact between the United States and Iran is troubling.

“Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, U.S. officials could still talk with the Soviets,” the admiral said. In the early 1960s, U.S. and Soviet leaders had the Hot Line that went straight from the White House to the Kremlin. The United States and Soviet Union had the two largest armories of nuclear weapons. Both nations had nuclear-armed forces on alert at all times.

A must-listen: Columbia SIPA Professor’s Gary Sick’s keynote speech at the London School of Economics on Iran and the Arab world

The Road Not Taken Toward Iran – Paul Pillar, The National Interest

Last week the head of Iran’s atomic energy agency offered in a speech to allow international inspectors “full supervision” of all of Iran’s nuclear activities for five years if sanctions on Iran are lifted. The offer was vaguely worded, and issues of timing and sequencing regarding the sanctions part of the formula might be difficult to work out. But it would be a mistake to respond as Americans have too often responded, which is to assume the worst about the intentions on the other side and to act in a way that would make sense only if that assumption were true, even though we don’t know it to be true. It would make far more sense to act with the realization that as far as we know the Iranian statement could be anything from a major breakthrough to a phony bit of rhetoric. The only way to find out is to explore the unexplored road and talk with the Iranians about it. If the favorable possibility turns out to be true, talking could be the first step toward a comprehensive safeguards agreement. If the unfavorable possibility turns out to be true, little or nothing is lost; in fact the Western case for pressuring Iran would be strengthened by demonstrating that the West is willing to go the extra mile.

U.S. in a Bind Over Palestine’s Bid for U.N. Recognition – Barbara Slavin, IPS News

Chas Freeman, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, another Washington think tank, Monday that there will be “a war of attrition by the international community… against the U.S. effort to protect Israel from the consequences of its own actions in the occupied territories.”

Conflict in Israel?: A problematic speaking deal at The New York Times – Max Blumenthal, Columbia Journalism Review

Running the Jerusalem bureau for The New York Times is a tough job in a hypersensitive area, one that attracts more than its share of slings and arrows. So maybe it is best not to hand out extra arrows, as Ethan Bronner seems to have done.

In 2009, Bronner, who has run the bureau since March 2008, joined the speakers bureau of one of Israel’s top public relations firms, Lone Star Communications. Lone Star arranges speaking dates for Bronner and takes 10 to 15 percent of his fee. At the same time, Lone Star pitches Bronner stories.

Turkey, Egypt and Israel – Juan Cole, Informed Comment

Not only has Turkey moved away from a wounded Turkish secular nationalism, but Egypt has moved away from a naive Arab nationalism. With the fall of the Hosni Mubarak regime, Egypt is groping toward a new, multi-cultural politics that makes a place for Muslim religious parties and for secularists alike. Many young Muslim Brothers speak favorably of a “Turkish model.”

Hawks Fret Over U.S. Withdrawal – Jim Lobe, IPS News

Such a plan “is completely at odds with the best advice of military commanders on the ground, undercuts the position of American negotiators(,) and suggests that Iraq’s future is of little importance to the United States,” wrote Max Boot, a neo-conservative at the Council on Foreign Relations, in the Weekly Standard.

“In fact, with such small troop numbers, U.S. commanders would be forced to all but close shop,” concluded Boot, whose views have in the past reflected those of former Central Command chief and current Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director, Gen. David Petraeus.

Sanctions and Iran’s Growing Economic Woes – NIAC Podcast

Discussing Iran’s current economic situation, the effects of U.S. sanctions on Iran, and the prevailing attitude amongst Iranians towards sanctions with sociologist, Kevan Harris.

The Prescience Of MearsheimerAndrew Sullivan, The Dish (h/t Mondoweiss)

It took Obama to get this right, after I and so many got it so terribly wrong. And this is another reminder of the strategic brilliance of Mearsheimer, a man subjected to a vicious smear campaign because of his resistance to the Greater Israel Lobby.
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Do Robert Gates And David Petraeus Agree On ‘Linkage?’ http://www.ips.org/blog/ips/do-robert-gates-and-david-petraeus-agree-on-%e2%80%98linkage%e2%80%99/ http://www.ips.org/blog/ips/do-robert-gates-and-david-petraeus-agree-on-%e2%80%98linkage%e2%80%99/#comments Wed, 07 Sep 2011 15:35:08 +0000 Eli Clifton http://www.lobelog.com/?p=9780 Reposted by arrangement with Think Progress

Jeffrey Goldberg’s report on a meeting of National Security Council Principals Committee (NSC/PC), in which Secretary of Defense Robert Gates expressed frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intransigence on the peace process and the fact that “the U.S. has received nothing in return” for [...]]]> Reposted by arrangement with Think Progress

Jeffrey Goldberg’s report on a meeting of National Security Council Principals Committee (NSC/PC), in which Secretary of Defense Robert Gates expressed frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intransigence on the peace process and the fact that “the U.S. has received nothing in return” for its security guarantees, might raise more questions than it answers.

What Goldberg didn’t mention is the historical and conceptual context for Gates’ remarks. Indeed, Gates is not the first senior American official to express concern that the protraction of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and the perception of U.S. favoritism toward Israel on this issue — was offering few, if any, dividends for U.S. security or its own regional interests.

Back in March, 2010, Gen. David Petraeus made waves when he told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had immediate implications for the U.S.’s ability to pursue its interests in the Middle East. He named some of these problems:

Insufficient progress toward a comprehensive Middle East peace. The enduring hostilities between Israel and some of its neighbors present distinct challenges to our ability to advance our interests in the AOR. Israeli-Palestinian tensions often flare into violence and large-scale armed confrontations. The conflict foments anti-American sentiment, due to a perception of U.S. favoritism for Israel. Arab anger over the Palestinian question limits the strength and depth of U.S. partnerships with governments and peoples in the AOR and weakens the legitimacy of moderate regimes in the Arab world. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda and other militant groups exploit that anger to mobilize support. The conflict also gives Iran influence in the Arab world through its clients, Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas.

Israel hawks quickly denounced Petraeus’ comments and have continued to attack a straw man argument that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict wouldn’t solve all challenges facing the U.S. in the Middle East.

But Petraeus wasn’t the only senior U.S. official to endorse the concept of “linkage” between resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the longer-term strategic interests of the U.S. in the Middle East. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, CENTCOM commander Gen. James Mattis, and Adm. Michael Mullen — via a WikiLeaks cable — have voiced endorsements of this concept.

While Jeffrey Goldberg — who has a history of rejecting linkage — carefully reports on Gates’ anger with Netanyahu for delivering “nothing in return” for security guarantees, access to weapons, and intelligence sharing, he is careful to sidestep the obvious next question. Why does Gates feel strongly about Netanyahu refusing to “grapple with Israel’s growing isolation and with the demographic challenges it faces if it keeps control of the West Bank”?

Goldberg doesn’t engage that topic. It might be because Gates shares the emerging consensus of the U.S.’s top military and political leadership that Israel’s continued settlement expansion and intransigence at the negotiating table is doing real damage to the Obama administration’s attempts to pursue a wide range of military and political interests in the Middle East.

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