It is too early to say unequivocally that this is the course the Obama administration has decided to take. The nature of the current US-Egypt relationship is such that backroom negotiations are far more important than public pronouncements, and thus there’s no way of knowing exactly what the administration is telling its Egyptian counterparts. It’s not impossible that the US really does see Suleiman as nothing more than a brief stopgap to smooth the transition to a more robust democracy, as administration officials have been claiming. If that proves to be true, I will withdraw my reservations about the administration’s approach.
But if the US does end up trying to prop up some form of Mubarakism without Mubarak, it will represent a serious error – and one that even those who are generally sympathetic to the Obama administration should not hesitate to criticize it for. Regular readers will know that I was extremely skeptical of right-wing criticisms of the Obama administration for not “doing more” during the 2009 Iranian political crisis. The reason was that “doing more” generally turned out to mean one of two things: either engaging in more self-righteous public posturing, or taking a harder line on the Iranian nuclear program by escalating sanctions and considering a military strike. Neither course of action stood any likelihood of doing anything to help the Green Movement’s cause – in fact, as Iranian dissidents like Akbar Ganji warned, the course of action favored by the Iran hawks was likely to destroy the Iranian opposition altogether.
Why do I think criticisms of the Obama administration are justified in the Egyptian case when they weren’t in the Iranian case? Simply because in Egypt the US does actually have the potential to “do more,” and to have a tangible impact on the fate of the democracy movement. While the US had no relationship with the Islamic Republic that would allow it to exert leverage on the regime’s behavior, the Mubarak regime is a US client, and the US thus has an great deal of leverage – particularly on the Egyptian military, which will play a decisive role in any political transition. Putting the possible discontinuation of US military aid on the negotiating table, for instance, might exert a real influence on the decision-making of Suleiman and his circle.
It has been repeated to the point of platitude in recent weeks that Egyptians must determine their own fate, and that the US cannot dictate Egypt’s future to it. This is certainly true, but it is frequently misused and misunderstood. It is fallacious to believe that if the US sits back and allows the perpetuation of the status quo it will thereby be “doing nothing,” for the simple reason that the status quo – US backing for a military regime in Egypt – itself represents a serious intervention into Egyptian politics. For the Obama administration to continue its current backing for the regime under Suleiman while refusing to push for political reform would not be “letting Egyptians decide their own fate.” It would be siding with the regime against the protesters.
This is not chiefly a matter of rhetorical posturing. I don’t particularly mind that the administration has taken a restrained tone in its public pronouncements, and I don’t think that issuing gauzy paeans to Freedom and Democracy would do much to help the cause of freedom and democracy in Egypt. (Not to mention that after thirty years of US support for Mubarak, such rhetoric would surely strike most Egyptians as obviously insincere.) Rather, it is chiefly a matter of the serious use of US leverage – most likely in private – to make clear to the regime that continued US political patronage will depend on major political reform. It’s possible that the administration is already doing this, in which case these worries will be unfounded. If not, however, Obama will have a lot to answer for.
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I LOOK OUTSIDE AND IT’S HAPPENING, WITH A PRICE
It’s really history being made. It’s the kind of thing I knew would happen, but I imagined it happening maybe in the future life of my kids.
But I look outside and it’s happening. But it comes with a price, and the price is insecurity now and uncertainty in the future. — Could you hear that? The gunshot?
With regard to Omar Suleiman’s appointment as vice president, I’ve been on the phone with dozens of people, and everyone says the same thing: Nothing has changed. Suleiman has been there for 20 years. And Mubarak still has power.
INSECURITY AWAY FROM KEY SIGHTS, POLICE ‘THUGS’?
It’s bad today. It’s not political; it’s security now. And it’s getting out of control.
A lot of the looters are former low-level secret police that have been cut loose, looting and attacking homes and robbing people. Many of them originally were in plain clothes, because their job was to gather intelligence.
The police are in rebellion now. They are bandit police, and they’re turning against society in general. The police are not functioning; there are no traffic police. I’ve been out all day, and all the police stations are all surrounded by tanks.
I have a firsthand report about clashes between the police and the army in Tenth of Ramadan City, about 60 km northeast of Cairo. Eventually, the army was able to round up a bunch of the police conscripts and imprison them in the police station.
Things were more normal yesterday than today. Look at me: Instead of going downtown, I was scared that my kids and wife would be attacked, so I had to come back early. And this is happening in almost every city, in every district across Egypt.
It’s getting very chaotic and I don’t know what will happen next. See, I’m talking to you now, and I just heard another shot fired. And it’s a very nice area. We were concerned that they were going after the areas that seemed affluent.
I spent all day in Sixth of October City, and I’ve seen more tanks coming on trucks. And some areas are being barricaded by the army. Residential areas are unprotected except for police stations.
There’s no police force now. They were ordered to pull back.
IS MUBARAK PLAYING THE SECURITY CARD?
I think the regime is playing a game, really trying to scare people off of change because of this insecurity. Many of the things that are being done seem organized, especially the looting. (Many of these groups are fighting with the army, too.) The government may be just punishing the people.
Of course, this insecurity will have political consequences: Now, the people’s regime change demand may take a back seat to security. People are turning inward; they just want protection. The TV stations are airing live phone calls from people saying, ‘We are in such-and-such location, send the army. We need help because we are being attacked by thugs.’
The government was putting out some ridiculous things, such as accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of looting. That never gained much traction; no one believed it.
But everything outside takes more time. I went to see why I can’t make international phone calls, and the phone company was closed. The banks are closed and ATMs don’t work. The telecom company is closed. Schools are closed, universities are closed.
The food situation is getting worse. There are lines for every kind of item. All kinds of stores — even food stores — have been looted. I confirmed that Hyper-One, a mega-grocery in Skeikh Zayed City, was looted.
Because we’re in an area that’s not hooked up to the gas grid, we have to buy gas cylinders, and we couldn’t buy that either. And we are only four or five days into the unrest. I have maybe a week worth of cooking gas.
PEOPLE PUSH BACK WITH NEIGHBORHOOD WATCHES
The police are attacking people from one area to the next. Me and my neighbors are keeping sort of a neighborhood watch. Everyone is armed with knives and sticks, lead pipes, whatever they can get.
Shots are being fired everywhere now. Mosques are turning into local radio stations with their megaphones. People in the neighborhoods are stationed in the mosque to warn the area about advancing thugs, the gangs that are looting and attacking people.
It’s a very messy situation, very different than yesterday.
Right now, people are coming together and that’s a good thing. People are trying to patrol the streets with just sticks and kitchenware, because the army and police have a monopoly on weapons in Egypt.
There is sort of a very moderate Muslim independent preacher — a televangelist — named Amr Khaled who volunteered to help people form small groups to help protect and establish security.
People are banding together. Everyone is calling everyone else and giving them tips, telling them how to secure their kids. Many hope the chaos and security problems will not affect the political process.
INTERNATIONALS LOOKING TO GET OUT
The governments of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and others have been giving embassy hotline numbers to local television channels to distribute so that their citizens can get in touch and get help leaving Egypt. America has not posted any number for U.S. citizens that I have seen.
WHAT SHOULD THE U.S. DO?
If Mubarak falls, it is difficult to see how the U.S. will be able to secure any influence in whatever comes next in Egypt unless they organize a clear stance now so Egyptians can see it. It would probably take a strong statement that makes the regime understand that this is the future and that the U.S. wants change.
This is a chance for everyone to not make the same mistakes.
The protesters are not anti-American, so why make them anti-American by backing the wrong side. It’s a pretty clear choice.
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