Mozambique: floods-reconstruction/IPS MS Solidarity 2000-News/

After the Floods: The Challenge of Reconstruction

By Antonio Gumede

MAPUTO, June 2000 (IPS) - The Mozambican government managed to raise US$ 453 million for the post-flood reconstruction programme presented to the donor in May. But the full recovery from this year's devastating floods will be a long and painful process.

Mozambique seems to have stepped into the 21st century with the wrong foot. During the first quarter of the year this southern African nation experienced massive flooding in a scale never seen in the last 50 years, setting back much of the progress achieved since the return of peace in 1992.

The floods have forced the government to revise growth estimates downwards: the growth rate for 2000 has been set at 6 per cent, marking Mozambique's departure from the club of countries who had been growing at double digits since 1997.

The floods affected 508 schools representing 1,300 classrooms. The affected schools had a student population of 208,000 pupils and 3,000 teachers at primary, secondary and technical levels. The reconstruction of the affected schools is expected to require US$ 36 million.

The floods also affected water distribution which is one of the factors with a direct impact on the health conditions of the population. The floods created the conditions for the outbreak of water borne diseases such as cholera and malaria. The government estimated the total needs to improve water provision and sanitation at US$ 27 million. The impact of the floods in the health sector was also significant.

A total of 39 health centres, one general hospital and four rural hospitals were severely damaged. The needs for the health sector are estimated at US$ 49,4 million, of which 25 per cent will be devoted to infrastructure rehabilitation.

The immediate implications in budgetary terms was an additional expenditure of US$ 261 million in the year 2000 and US$ 110 million in 2001 of which only US$ 70 million will be financed through taxes. The balance will be have to be met by grants and development assistance.

Natural disasters are not a new phenomenon in Mozambique. When the country is not affected by too much water, it suffers the effects of having too little rainfall. In the last 20 years there have been at least four severe droughts and five serious flooding in 1977, 1985, 1988 and now in 2000. In fact, what this pattern suggests is that only one in every two rainy season can be regarded as "normal".

However, none of the previous incidents of floods were in the scale and magnitude as the one experienced by the country this year. In a period of two months Mozambique was hit by two successive cyclones, Eline and Hudah, which left a trail of destruction in southern and central Mozambique.

Cyclone Eline, which hit the country in February, was the most destructive of the two, forcing rivers to burst their banks and submerge entire towns in southern and central Mozambique. The last count estimated that 700 people died and 100 or so disappeared. More than 50,000 had to be plucked out of tree branches and rooftops where they had sought refuge from the ravaging waters that displaced 544,000 people and affected 22 of the country's 120 districts.

The economic impact of the flooding is enormous for a country which, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of US$ 246, is regarded as being amongst the 10 most impoverished nations on planet earth, with 70 per cent of the population living below the poverty line estimated at US$ 1 day.

The vulnerability of the country to natural disaster was vividly highlighted by its lack of preparedness to minimise the effects of the floods, notwithstanding the fact that natural disasters are a cyclical phenomenon in Mozambique.

The country's airforce had only one operational helicopter and a handful of rubber boats to deal with situation. Had it not been for the relatively swift response of the international and neighbouring countries who provided 59 aircraft for rescue operations, more lives would have been lost. The economic impact of the flood were extensive.

Agriculture is the country's economic mainstay: It contributes 28 per cent of GDP and 80 per cent of the country's 17 million people depend on it for their subsistence. The floods destroyed 141,000 hectares of food crops in the peasant sector and 4,400 hectares of sugar cane.

A total of 124,250 families lost their crops. The government estimates that 90 per cent of the country's fragile irrigation capacity, most of it concentrated along the major rivers in southern Mozambique was badly damaged.

Estimates indicate that around 200,000 heads of cattle and 277,000 small ruminants such as goats and ships were swept away by the floods. The tragedy brought about by this year's floods has forced the government to review its natural disaster management strategy.

The emphasis henceforth will be on creating the necessary organisational capacity and to strengthen the early warning systems to detect cyclone activity on time, hydromectric forecasts through the surveillance of water levels in the country's major rivers to detect the occurrence of droughts and floods.

The government is also planning to improve the infrastructure through the construction of new dams in at least three international main watercourses that run across central and southern Mozambique, the Limpopo, Incomati and Púngoe rivers, as well careful planning of future settlements to prevent people from settling in flood-prone or drought vulnerable areas.

What remains to be seen is whether the government has indeed learnt its lessons from this year's floods.