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IPS Writers in the Blogosphere » Avner Cohen https://www.ips.org/blog/ips Turning the World Downside Up Tue, 26 May 2020 22:12:16 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 Israel and Iran's Shared Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity https://www.ips.org/blog/ips/israel-and-irans-shared-policy-of-nuclear-ambiguity/ https://www.ips.org/blog/ips/israel-and-irans-shared-policy-of-nuclear-ambiguity/#comments Fri, 29 Oct 2010 23:38:18 +0000 Eli Clifton http://www.lobelog.com/?p=5245 Israeli blogger Noam Sheizaf has conducted an interesting interview with Israeli historical researcher and expert on Israel’s nuclear policy, Avner Cohen. Cohen’s latest book, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb,  addresses the origins of Israel’s nuclear strategy and its policy of ambiguity. Sheizaf calls attention to the parallels that Cohen draws [...]]]> Israeli blogger Noam Sheizaf has conducted an interesting interview with Israeli historical researcher and expert on Israel’s nuclear policy, Avner Cohen. Cohen’s latest book, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb,  addresses the origins of Israel’s nuclear strategy and its policy of ambiguity. Sheizaf calls attention to the parallels that Cohen draws between Iran’s nuclear policy and the path taken by Israel.

Cohen, in an interview at his home in Washington DC, told Sheizaf (my emphasis):

The bitter irony is that right now, ambiguity serves the interests of Israel’s rival in the Middle East. Iran is creating its own version of ambiguity: not the concealment of its project, but rather ambiguity with regard to the distinction separating possession and non-possession of nuclear weapons. It reiterates that it has no intention of building a bomb, but that it has the right to enrich uranium, and even come close to developing [nuclear] weapons – while still remaining true to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It is straddling the line, and in my opinion, Iran wants to, and can, remain for some time with the status of a state that might or might not have the bomb. Iran is a state of ambiguity.

Cohen also addresses the thinking behind Israel’s vehement opposition to Iran becoming a nuclear state. This concern is largely based on the belief that while Israel holds a technological edge in having nuclear weapons, a nuclear arms race in the region would not be in Israel’s interest.

At all government and semi-governmental forums, ministers from the Achdut Ha’avoda party, Yigal Allon and Israel Galili, argued that Israel should maintain its ‘technological edge’ in the nuclear sphere, but that we should be careful not to be the ones responsible for bringing nuclear arms to the region.

[…]

They had the concern that if we were to turn into a nuclear state, as Peres and then, later on, [Moshe] Dayan wanted, the Middle East would inevitably go nuclear. Should Israel gain nuclear capability, then it would be impossible to stop the other side from attaining its own nuclear weapon, sooner or later; that would create an arms race. And that was their nightmare.

Cohen explains (my emphasis again):

It’s interesting to look at how far-ranging this thinking was, because it has remained our nightmare to the present day. Were we to believe in mutual nuclear deterrence, we would be able to see that a nuclear Iran is something that can be lived with. But we are aware of an asymmetry, whose gist is: We are a smaller and more vulnerable country, and so even if everyone understands that we are the most advanced and strongest nuclear state [in the region] – a nuclearized Middle East is not in our interest.

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The Daily Talking Points https://www.ips.org/blog/ips/the-daily-talking-points-18/ https://www.ips.org/blog/ips/the-daily-talking-points-18/#comments Thu, 26 Aug 2010 19:02:18 +0000 Eli Clifton http://www.lobelog.com/?p=2873 News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for August 26th, 2010:

Reuters: John Irish reports that French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned Iran that, “If a credible agreement [over its nuclear program] cannot be reached, Iran’s isolation would only worsen.”  Sarkozy continued, “And in the face of worsening threat, we would have to organize [...]]]>
News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for August 26th, 2010:

  • Reuters: John Irish reports that French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned Iran that, “If a credible agreement [over its nuclear program] cannot be reached, Iran’s isolation would only worsen.”  Sarkozy continued, “And in the face of worsening threat, we would have to organize ourselves to protect and defend states that feel threatened.”  Sarkozy has said he supported the start up of the new nuclear power plant at Bushehr, fueled by Russian fuel rods, as long as it adheres to international law. (Commentary‘s Jennifer Rubin is encouraged, calling Sarkozy’s comments “Better Than Nothing.”)
  • Associated Press (via Yahoo): Nasser Karimi reports that Tehran is proposing to jointly assemble nuclear fuel for the Bushehr nuclear plant alongside Russian technicians. The U.S. and Western allies agreed to lift their opposition to the Bushehr on the condition that Russia handle all the nuclear fuel. “We have made a proposal to Russia to create a consortium under Russian license to do part of the work in Russia and part in Iran,” the head of Iran’s atomic energy agency, Ali Akbar Salehi, told the Iranian state-run Press TV. Moscow is reported to be studying the new proposal.
  • International Herald Tribune: Avner Cohen and Marvin Miller make the case for Israel ending its longstanding policy of nuclear opacity.  “International support for Israel and its opaque bomb is being increasingly eroded by its continued occupation of Palestinian territory and the policies that support that occupation. Such criticism of these policies might well spill over into the nuclear domain, making Israel vulnerable to the charge that it is a nuclear-armed pariah state, and thus associating it to an uncomfortable degree with today’s rogue Iranian regime,” they write. “Indeed, while almost all states publicly oppose the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran, there is also growing support for dealing with this problem in an ‘evenhanded’ manner, namely, by establishing a nuclear weapons free zone across the entire region.”  The authors emphasize that international support for Israel and its policy of opacity is eroding as Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories drags on.  (Ali wrote about Cohen and Miller’s op-ed yesterday.)
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Israel's Nuclear Opacity Hurts Its Stance on Iran https://www.ips.org/blog/ips/israels-nuclear-opacity-hurts-its-stance-on-iran/ https://www.ips.org/blog/ips/israels-nuclear-opacity-hurts-its-stance-on-iran/#comments Thu, 26 Aug 2010 02:23:31 +0000 Ali Gharib http://www.lobelog.com/?p=2858 In the International Herald Tribune, the global edition of the New York Times, Avner Cohen and Marvin Miller have an op-ed about the Israeli covert nuclear program. Cohen, a non-proliferation fellow at California’s Monterey Institute of International Studies is about to drop a book — “The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain With the Bomb” [...]]]> In the International Herald Tribune, the global edition of the New York Times, Avner Cohen and Marvin Miller have an op-ed about the Israeli covert nuclear program. Cohen, a non-proliferation fellow at California’s Monterey Institute of International Studies is about to drop a book — “The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain With the Bomb” — about Israel and its opaque nuclear program, about which the Jewish state adopts a policy of ambiguity to protect.

I’m still plowing through the Foreign Affairs article from which the Cohen and Miller’s IHT op-ed is drawn (I’ll report on the FA article later), but this little piece from the shorter version is worth taking note of with regards to the ongoing debate over Israel’s stance on the Iranian nuclear program:

Israel needs to recognize, moreover, that the Middle East peace process is linked to the issue of nuclear weapons in the region. International support for Israel and its opaque bomb is being increasingly eroded by its continued occupation of Palestinian territory and the policies that support that occupation. Such criticism of these policies might well spill over into the nuclear domain, making Israel vulnerable to the charge that it is a nuclear-armed pariah state, and thus associating it to an uncomfortable degree with today’s rogue Iranian regime.

Indeed, while almost all states publicly oppose the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran, there is also growing support for dealing with this problem in an “evenhanded” manner, namely, by establishing a nuclear weapons free zone across the entire region.

However, if Israel takes seriously the need to modify its own nuclear posture and its approach to the peace process, there will likely be stronger international support for measures designed to stop Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold and to contain a nuclear-armed Iran if those efforts fail.

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