WILLIAM HAGUE: If they want as I believe they do want long term security for their country then they will have to embrace those things, arrive at a settlement around those parameters. And I think it’s vital for Israel that they do so.
Look, the Arab Spring brings many benefits. It has many — it’s a hugely positive thing for the world on the whole but I don’t think Israel would want the democratic politics of Egypt, in Libya, in Tunisia, to come in the years to come a bidding war among different parties about who can become more hostile to Israel because the Palestinian issue is not being settled. That is a danger for Israel.
Also they affect Iran, their nuclear program is a major threat to peace in the region and the world. And to focus on facing up to that threat also requires making the agreement with the Palestinians. It is vital for Israel’s security that they do so.
Hague thus joins the highest levels of the U.S. military in arguing that solving the Israel-Palestine conflict is central to progressing on other heated issues in the Middle East, such as Iran’s alleged nuclear ambitions. A secure and independent Palestine would not only remove one of Iran’s main rallying causes, but also undermine the impression that Washington permits Israel to behave with impunity in the region, leading to a less polarized and therefore more stable environment.
Hague’s words will likely be received negatively by neoconservatives who propagate reverse linkage, the argument that pressuring Israel to make peace should be postponed until the U.S. has dealt with Iran’s nuclear program and other potential challenges to Israel’s military dominance of the region.
]]>Lieberman doesn’t appear too concerned about testing U.S.-China relations and calls for the U.S. to sanction Chinese companies that do business in Iran.
[Aggressive enforcement of sanctions] means American penalties against companies that continue to invest in Iran’s energy sector or sell refined petroleum to Iran—including Chinese companies.
Lieberman effectively shelves any hope for diplomatic outreach with Tehran– a contradiction of his stated support for the Obama administration’s Iran-policy.
Finally, we must also acknowledge the possibility that the current leaders of Iran are incapable of compromise on the nuclear program, no matter how much pressure is put on them, because opposition to America and the West is so integral to their very identity. If this is the case, our best hope to resolve this confrontation is not for the regime to change its behavior, but for the regime itself to be changed. In this respect, let us hope and pray that what has happened in Egypt will provide renewed inspiration and direction to the millions of Iranians who yearn for freedom.
And he is adament about keeping the “military option” on the table.
I also agree with President Obama that the use of military force is not the “ideal way” to stop the Iranian nuclear program. But if a nuclear Iran is as unacceptable as we all say it is, we must be prepared to do whatever is necessary to prevent the unacceptable.
Lieberman concludes his remarks by managing to work a “reverse-linkage” argument into a reference to one of Theodor Herzl’s most famous Zionist slogans. He suggests that the path to peace for Israel and its neighbors is for Islamist and authoritarian leaders to be overthrown in favor of democratic and peaceful governments.
On the other hand, we must acknowledge that freedom’s range has spread remarkably in our time and we must have the vision to see the world as it can be. This is the alternative future we must also summon the imagination to envision for the Middle East, and the political will to help bring into being:
A Middle East in which a democratic Egypt and a democratic Iran assume their central positions as peaceful, prosperous regional powers and the modern heirs to two of the world’s great civilizations.
A Middle East in which Islamist extremism no longer inspires violence or loyalty, but joins other failed and inhumane ideologies among history’s losers.
And a Middle East in which Israel and its Arab and Persian neighbors live in peace with each other as fellow democracies that respect the human rights of their citizens—in a region where the notion of going to war against each other becomes as unthinkable and absurd as it is today in Europe among nations who fought each other for centuries.
I know this vision may seem like a naïve dream. But I also know, as a great man once said, if we will it, it is no dream!
Establishing a Palestinian state, an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, or ending the siege on Gaza don’t play prominently in Lieberman’s peace plan.
]]>Notes from a June 16, 2009 meeting show the chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, quoting what Mullen told Mahmoud Abbas:
I have [...]]]>
Notes from a June 16, 2009 meeting show the chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, quoting what Mullen told Mahmoud Abbas:
I have 230,000 troops in Iraq & Afghanistan and I am bringing back 10 each week draped in American flags or in wheelchairs. This is painful for America. Because I want to bring them back home, a Palestinian state is a cardinal interest of the USA. Washington today is different from Washington yesterday.
The implication from that statement is crystal clear: Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a vital national security interest of the U.S. While “reverse linkage” pushers will always deny this argument, the military, the realist establishment, and the administration increasingly appear to be of one mind on this issue.
]]>Linkage—a concept endorsed by the top levels of the U.S. military and the Obama administration–is a position that holds that ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will [...]]]>
Linkage—a concept endorsed by the top levels of the U.S. military and the Obama administration–is a position that holds that ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will remove a significant source of propaganda for Islamist extremists. Needless to say, the concept is a touchy subject which neoconservatives are quick to deny.
The Economist warns that consequences could be disastrous if a second war between Hezbollah and Israel is allowed to develop.
The authors write:
All of this should give new urgency to Arab-Israeli peacemaking. To start with, at least, peace will be incomplete: Iran, Hizbullah and sometimes Hamas say that they will never accept a Jewish state in the Middle East. But it is the unending Israeli occupation that gives these rejectionists their oxygen. Give the Palestinians a state on the West Bank and it will become very much harder for the rejectionists to justify going to war.
The Economist takes the view that the strategy of encouraging Israeli and Palestinian leadership to negotiate has run its course. Instead, the message to the Obama administration is “Don’t Mediate. Legislate.”
Taking into consideration the mainstream acceptance of a publication such as The Economist, one can see that this is an important article targeted at a specific readership within the Washington establishment.
They say:
Instead of giving up, Mr Obama needs to change his angle of attack. America has clung too long to the dogma that direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians are the way forward. James Baker, a former secretary of state, once said that America could not want peace more than the local parties did. This is no longer true. The recent history proves that the extremists on each side are too strong for timid local leaders to make the necessary compromises alone. It is time for the world to agree on a settlement and impose it on the feuding parties.
The outline for such an imposed settlement, says The Economist, was laid out at the 2000 Camp David Summit.
Mr Clinton unveiled his blueprint at the end of a negotiation that had failed. Mr Obama should set out his own map and make this a new starting point. He should gather international support for it, either through the United Nations or by means of an international conference of the kind the first President Bush held in Madrid in 1991. But instead of leaving the parties to talk on their own after the conference ends, as Mr Bush did after Madrid, America must ride herd, providing reassurance and exerting pressure on both sides as required.
The article goes on to make the case that pressuring Israeli and Palestinian leadership is in the interest of the U.S.: “America is far from weak in the Levant, where both Israel and the nascent Palestine in the West Bank continue to depend on it in countless vital ways.”
The endorsement of linkage and the call for greater U.S. leadership in ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are important pieces in resolving U.S. security concerns in the Middle East.
Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict serves as the most important step U.S. leadership can take to secure their interests in the region. The administration has already endorsed linkage. Now The Economist is pushing the White House toward the next logical step in the process.
]]>The Wall Street Journal: Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, writes that Afghanistan is costly and “a strategic distraction,” and that U.S. military resources could be better used by preparing for a conflict with North Korea and Iran. Haass says [...]]]>
The Wall Street Journal: Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, writes that Afghanistan is costly and “a strategic distraction,” and that U.S. military resources could be better used by preparing for a conflict with North Korea and Iran. Haass says an important factor is, “[T]he increased possibility of a conflict with a reckless North Korea and the continued possibility of a confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program. U.S. military forces must be freed up to contend with these issues.” While “total withdrawal is not the answer,” he concludes that “The perception that we are tied down in Afghanistan makes it more difficult to threaten North Korea or Iran credibly—and makes it more difficult to muster the forces to deal with either if necessary.”
New York Post: An editorial in NY’s Rupert Murdoch-owned tabloid picks up on the threats of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps general that Iran will retaliate for the assassinations of its nuclear scientists. “It may sound like an empty threat, or an unhinged response,” write the Post editors. “But the threat is dead serious — proof of how hellbent Iran is to split the atom.” They add: “For Iran, nukes are its foreign policy — along with the terror it exports to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.” They add the threat of nuclear war looms large if Iran gets the bomb: “An atomic Iran could launch traditional military and terrorist attacks and tie the world’s hands by threatening nuclear war when any nation moves to fight back. By then it won’t have to rattle its sabers — it can aim its nukes instead.”
Pajamas Media: Foundation for Defense of Democracies scholar Michael Ledeen writes that last week’s terror attack in Southeastern Iran wasn’t a terror attack at all, but was “against the symbols and enforcers of the Shi’ite regime: Revolutionary Guards, Basij, and Quds Force fighters.” Ledeen cites internal political wrangling and suggests that the regime is in a “death spiral.” He concludes by making a case for regime change as a means of “reverse linkage” in the most sweeping manner seen yet: “If only there were a Western leader with the prescience and courage to support the Greens, we would find many terrible problems a lot easier to manage: Iraq and Afghanistan would go better, the tyrant Chavez and his ‘Bolivarian’ Axis of Latin Evildoers would be weakened, and the misnamed ‘peace process’ might even have a chance.”
]]>From here, JINSA goes on to seriously distort the messages consistently delivered [...]]]>
From here, JINSA goes on to seriously distort the messages consistently delivered by Gulf Arab leaders in the WikiLeaks cables — focusing on hostile rhetoric against Iran and ignoring any messages from regional autocrats arguing for ‘linkage,’ pushing instead for ‘reverse linkage.’
JINSA’s report reads:
…WikiLeaks showed that the Administration deliberately miscast the centrality of Palestine in Middle East politics. The President said ending the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was the necessary precursor to bringing the Arabs into a coalition to oppose Iran, but the Arabs – led by Saudi Arabia in no uncertain terms – pleaded with the Administration to tackle Iran first and Iran only.
While some cables indeed focused on Iran and not the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, many of the diplomatic communiqués dealt directly with the latter issue. JINSA, however, strapped on blinders when it came to the repeated endorsements of linkage between resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and containing Iran.
Jim Lobe and I highlighted the numerous endorsements of linkage by Arab leaders in our IPS article earlier this week. Just one example of this endorsement was provided by the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan — one of the more Iran-hawkish of the Arab leaders — in a December 9, 2009, meeting with the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy Daniel Poneman in which Zayed:
Emphasized the strategic importance of creating a Palestinian State (i.e., resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict) as the way to create genuine Middle Eastern unity on the question of Iran’s nuclear program and regional ambitions.
But such selective interpretation of facts is becoming commonplace by those who challenge the concept of linkage and push ‘reverse linkage.’
This argument is frequently cast as “the road to peace runs through Baghdad”—as discussed by Bill Kristol and Robert Kagan in their 2002 article in the Weekly Standard. Now, as argued by Jennifer Rubin, among others, the argument has been tweaked to make the case that “the road to Middle East peace runs through Tehran.”
But the invasion of Iraq didn’t bring Israel closer to peace with its neighbors. The 2006 Lebanon War, the 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza and the winter 2008-2009 Gaza War all occurred after Saddam Hussein had been removed from power.
Now JINSA is cherry-picking the words of Arab leaders and misrepresenting them as saying “Iran first and Iran only.” Such a blatant overlooking of the broader facts doesn’t make for good politics and it doesn’t help JINSA’s credibility.
]]>Peres makes the compelling argument that the U.S. has given much to Israel and that Israel should do what it can to help the U.S. in pursuing American strategic objectives in the region.
The Jerusalem Post reports [my emphasis]:
Speaking of how Israel can give back to the US, he said that just “as the US is trying to understand the security needs of Israel, we Israelis ourselves must understand the security needs of the US.” He continued, “We cannot give back to the United States what the US is giving us, but in our own small way, we can be of help.”
The Post’s summary of Peres’ comments, delivered at the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, continues [my emphasis again]:
Connecting two of the largest issues on the Israeli – and American – agenda, the president said Israel could be of help to the US by enabling an “anti-Iran coalition in the Middle East, and the contribution will not be by declaration, but if we stop the secondary conflict between us and the Palestinians,” in order to allow the US to focus on the Iranian threat.
While Peres doesn’t specify what, exactly, an “anti-Iran coalition” should do — military strikes? sanctions? diplomatic outreach? — he explicitly endorses the idea that bringing an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will make it easier for the U.S. and Israel to pursue multilateral initiatives with Arab allies.
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