Anthony Cordesman, a highly respected military and security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), released his 4th working draft with Alexander Wilner on Iran’s military forces on June 25. The paper is part of a volume on US and Iranian competition in the Gulf (the second part focuses on the nuclear dimensions). The authors begin by stating that the prospects for a military clash between the US and Iran have grown increasingly likely:
In the wake of recent failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, it seems increasingly unlikely that a political solution will be reached regarding Tehran’s increasing uranium enrichment. As a result, some form of military clash between the US and Iran, while by no means certain, is becoming increasingly likely. Such a clash can take many different forms, and each presents different levels of risk.
Ret. Col. Pat Lang, a former top Pentagon Middle East and South intelligence analyst, explains why he disagrees with the premise of the paper on his blog, Sic Temper Tyrannis:
]]>The essential competitiion in the Middle East is between Israel and Iran, not Iran and the US. If there is such a rivalry, it is largely created by a willingness on the part of the US to assume Israel’s strategic liabilities as its own.
Iran contributes to that willingness by making threatening noises and playing stupid diplomatc games but it is hard to conceal the fact that absent an Iranian attack on US assets or people or a serious threat to the US homeland the issue of hegemony in the Middle East, is a regional issue.
Unless the US is, in fact, the policeman of the world, why should we concern ourselves with Iranian “assymetric capabilities?”
There’s a lot of information packed [...]]]>
There’s a lot of information packed into the post: French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s support for Netanyahu’s determination to attack Iran; the politics of the February 2011 change of Israel’s army Chief of Staff; Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’s plan to depart the U.S. administration before an attack; and Israel’s calculus of blowback from airstrikes and what to do about them — i.e. attack Southern Lebanon and Gaza just as planes take off for Iran.
But, after all that, the post ends with bang — a discussion of the determination of Israel to attack Iran and the possible timeframe of such an assault.
Here’s Harper, on Lang’s blog:
When might such an operation be launched? My source believes that, if it does not happen before December 10, it will next be on the table for March or April 2011.
Netanyahu is considering, but has not finalized in his mind, to order strikes in late November 2010. All IDF vacations have been suspended as of this week; and IDF officers studying abroad have been summoned home temporarily. The line circulating around is: “No repeat of the Yom Kippur War when Israel was caught by surprise.” END” Harper
Will we have an Israeli strike — without a U.S. greenlight — by this upcoming spring? Doubtful.
An Israeli friend informs me that his military-connected sources have heard nothing about an imminent strike and that a massive cancellation of leave never materialized. However, it does appears that some weekend leave was cancelled on the weekend when Iran did it’s own massive military exercises aimed at preparing for such an aerial attack.
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